The Signal And The Noise

Download or Read online The Signal And The Noise complete ebook in PDF, ePUB, Mobi and Kindle format, to get unlimited access please create a FREE account and cancel the membership at any time if not satisfied. Join with other happy readers and read The Signal And The Noise eBook. No annoying ads, no download limits!!

Book Title : The Signal and the Noise
Author : Nate Silver
Editor : Penguin
Release Date : 2012-09-27
Pages : 544
ISBN : 9781101595954
Available Language : English, Spanish, And French
Format Available : PDF, ePUB, Mobi
DOWNLOAD READ ONLINE
Description:

One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012 New York Times Bestseller “Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.” —New York Times Book Review "Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift "A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." —New York Review of Books Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

The Signal And The Noise

Responsive imageDownload or Read online The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver eBook includes PDF, ePub, Mobi and Kindle version. Please subscribe to get unlimited access and read as many books as you like.

Download Read Online

Summary And Analysis Of The Signal And The Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail But Some Don T

Responsive imageDownload or Read online Summary and Analysis of The Signal and the Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail but Some Don t by Worth Books eBook includes PDF, ePub, Mobi and Kindle version. Please subscribe to get unlimited access and read as many books as you like.

Download Read Online

Analysis Of Nate Silver S The Signal And The Noise By Milkyway Media

Responsive imageDownload or Read online Analysis of Nate Silver s the Signal and the Noise by Milkyway Media by Milkyway Media eBook includes PDF, ePub, Mobi and Kindle version. Please subscribe to get unlimited access and read as many books as you like.

Download Read Online

The Signal And The Noise In 30 Minutes

Responsive imageDownload or Read online The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes by eBook includes PDF, ePub, Mobi and Kindle version. Please subscribe to get unlimited access and read as many books as you like.

Download Read Online

Insights On Nate Silver S The Signal And The Noise By Instaread

Responsive imageDownload or Read online Insights on Nate Silver s The Signal and the Noise by Instaread by Instaread eBook includes PDF, ePub, Mobi and Kindle version. Please subscribe to get unlimited access and read as many books as you like.

Download Read Online

The Signal And The Noise In 30 Minutes

Responsive imageDownload or Read online The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes by eBook includes PDF, ePub, Mobi and Kindle version. Please subscribe to get unlimited access and read as many books as you like.

Download Read Online

The Journey And The Voice The Signal And The Noise

Responsive imageDownload or Read online The Journey and the Voice the Signal and the Noise by Vijay Baldev Mehra eBook includes PDF, ePub, Mobi and Kindle version. Please subscribe to get unlimited access and read as many books as you like.

Download Read Online